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Ten Ways to Identify NFL Picks That Consistently Win Big
Winning big with professional football picks requires careful handicapping. The 32 teams of the National Football League (NFL) play 16 regular season games during a 17-week season, from September through December. That’s just 256 games, most of which are played on Sundays, thus giving you an entire week to study and select your NFL picks as the season progresses. Here are ten factors you should be looking for each week.
1. Each team plays 4 or 5 preseason games, but they give little indication of what your NFL picks should be in Week One. Coaches are trying out new players and formations. Stars ride the bench the majority of the time. Choosing good NFL picks among August practice games is difficult, indeed. You may wish to hold off making football picks till the games that count get under way.
2. During the first couple of weeks of the season, defenses have the advantage. Base your
NFL picks on experience. New quarterbacks and new offenses are unlikely to put up big numbers until they find their rhythm. Look for opportunities to bet the under on total score. Look for big spreads to be closer than the opening lines might suggest.
3. Gravity prevails in pro football. All that rises must come down. If your pro football picks include last week’s big winners, think again. Better NFL picks are the teams that lost big a week ago and are looking to rebound.
4. Streaks are less common and shorter in professional football than in college. Once a team has won or lost three in a row, it is due for a change. Look for underdogs among your NFL picks to restore balance and cancel streaks. And remember, win-loss records are far less important to your football picks than results “against the spread” (ATS).
5. Conventional wisdom says that home underdogs are a good NFL picks most the time, but historically they win no more than 50% of the time ATS. One strategy is to look for home underdogs that lost last week at home. For a variety of good reasons, they tend to pull themselves together for their fans.
6. Late in the season, teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention have little to play for—or so conventional wisdom would tell you. But professionals relish the role of spoiler, and favorites often let up when the opposition is supposedly weak. Add a few spoilers to your NFL picks in December.
7. Be proactive, not reactive. Predict outcomes before you make your NFL picks. Rather that read the opening lines first, you can use your knowledge of history and match-ups to forecast the results of various games. Then, when you see the bookmaker’s odds don’t agree, you can easily identify where the opportunities are.
8. During the playoffs, don’t get sidetracked. Sports books begin adding lots of side bets, so-called propositions or “props,” to entice recreational bettors. If you are not accustomed to making wagers on first quarter results, number of field goals made, or quarterback stats, this is not the time to begin. Stick to your winning strategy for NFL picks, just as you have all season.
9. Use your knowledge of the regular season to guide your playoff betting. Most of the teams in each conference have played each other before. Use past results to help frame your football picks for the post-season games.
10. Remember the Super Bowl is just one game. If you have been growing your bankroll all season, you may have some mad money to play on propositions and unusual sports picks, but this is not the game to make up all your losses on. Concentrate on winning slowly but surely with your NFL picks.
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